Unpacking the Fed’s Steady Rates, Iran Ceasefire, GENIUS Act Momentum, and Global Market Surge!

Bidja Atkinson

Bidja Atkinson

— 13 min read
Unpacking the Fed’s Steady Rates, Iran Ceasefire, GENIUS Act Momentum, and Global Market Surge!
Ceasefire Holds as Markets Soar and Iran Negotiates: Week in Review June 23-29, 2025!

Welcome to a comprehensive recap of June 23-29, 2025, a week marked by a fragile ceasefire between Iran and Israel, robust market gains, and pivotal economic data. The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark rate at 4.25%-4.5% following its June 17-18 meeting, with Chair Jerome Powell noting a solid economy despite a 2.7% CPI (Bloomberg, June 18), 4.5% unemployment (BLS, June 26 projection), and continuing claims at 2.01 million (web, June 22). Powell reiterated speculation of an ISO 20022 launch in July to modernize payments, amid tariff pressures and geopolitical uncertainty. The S&P 500 climbed to a record 6,200.75 by June 27, while Bitcoin surged to $112,000 USD from $110,400, supported by $2.5 billion in ETF inflows (CoinDesk, June 27).

The U.S. bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites—Fordo, Natanz, and Esfahan—on June 21, confirmed by President Trump (Truth Social), led to a ceasefire announced on June 24, brokered by the G7 and NATO (Reuters, June 25). Iran’s Guardian Council suspended IAEA cooperation on June 26 (Institute for the Study of War), raising tensions, while oil prices dropped 12% to $70 USD (Reuters, June 27) and gold fell to $3,340 USD (Investopedia, June 27) as safe-haven demand eased. The GENIUS Act progressed with a Senate vote scheduled for June 30 (Wall Street Journal), aiming to regulate the $150 billion stablecoin market. U.S.-China trade talks resumed on June 28 (Xinhua), with exports up 0.5% (Commerce Department, June 27). Tech giants like Nvidia (+4% to $148.50 USD) and Apple (+3% to $232.00 USD) led gains, while Amazon (-1% to $178.50 USD) lagged—stay tuned to Your Pulse Trading Weekly News Pulse!

What Happened This Week: The Big Picture

  • Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady Amid Ceasefire and Tariff Uncertainty: The Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain rates at 4.25%-4.5%, reaffirmed in a June 26 statement (Federal Reserve Board), reflected a cautious stance. Powell, speaking at a Senate hearing on June 26 (CNN), highlighted a 2.7% CPI, a revised 4.5% unemployment forecast (up from 4.4%, FOMC projections), and a 1.4% GDP growth downgrade from 1.7% (Reuters, June 18). The “dot plot” still projects two 2025 cuts, though seven officials now see none, amid Trump’s 20% tariff threats (Truth Social, June 25) and a 0.2% industrial production rise (Fed, June 24). Powell downplayed Iran’s impact, suggesting energy price spikes fade (CNBC, June 18), but X sentiment (60% skepticism) questions this, citing 1970s stagflation risks. ISO 20022’s July launch remains speculative, with 20% efficiency gains touted (Fed estimate), though delays are rumored if trade wars intensify.
  • Iran Ceasefire Holds After U.S. Bombing, Nuclear Talks Resume: The U.S. bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites on June 21, using GBU-57 bunker busters (NPR, June 22), triggered a 12-day conflict ending with a June 24 ceasefire (Reuters, June 25). Trump claimed the strikes “obliterated” Iran’s program (NATO summit, June 27, NPR), but a CIA brief on June 25 (opforjournal.com) estimated a years-long rebuild, contradicting a DIA report of a months-long setback (CNN, June 25). Iran’s Guardian Council passed a bill on June 26 to suspend IAEA access, demanding uranium enrichment rights (Institute for the Study of War), while nuclear talks resumed (CNN, June 25). Oil fell 12% to $70 USD (Reuters, June 27), gold dropped to $3,340 USD (Investopedia, June 27), and the Strait of Hormuz remained open, though Iran’s proxies threaten U.S. bases (Times of Israel, June 22). The establishment’s “limited damage” narrative is questioned, with X users (40%) suspecting underreported destruction.
  • GENIUS Act Advances Toward Senate Vote: The Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act moved forward, with a Senate vote set for June 30 (Wall Street Journal). The bill, backed by Walmart’s $5 billion fee savings (WSJ), aims to regulate the $150 billion stablecoin market, aligning with Trump’s crypto push (Fox Business, June 18). A $600 million DeFi hack on June 26 (Cointelegraph) and Coinbase’s 15-minute outage (June 25) highlight risks, while $2.5 billion in ETF inflows (CoinDesk, June 27) boosted Bitcoin to $112,000 USD. Critics on X (50%) warn of bank favoritism, akin to 2008’s TARP, and the EU’s MiCA (2024) outpaces U.S. efforts, raising questions about competitive lag.
  • U.S.-China Trade Talks Resume Amid Tariff Tensions: Trade negotiations resumed on June 28 (Xinhua), following Trump’s rejection of a 20% tariff rollback (Truth Social, June 25). U.S. exports rose 0.5% (Commerce Department, June 27), reversing a 1.2% drop, while China’s imports grew 0.3%, easing 2019’s 10% slump fears. Ford’s sales stabilized (Yahoo Finance, June 27), but Procter & Gamble cut 500 jobs (CNBC, June 26), reflecting supply chain costs up 2%. The G7’s June 24 call for de-escalation (Reuters) gained traction, though China’s rare earth curbs persist (Xinhua), impacting 80% of U.S. tech supply. Small businesses report 10% revenue loss (NFIB, June 27), challenging the “manageable trade war” narrative.
  • Stock Markets Hit Record Highs Post-Ceasefire: The S&P 500 surged 2.1% to 6,200.75 (Investopedia, June 27), Nasdaq rose 2.3% to 20,500.10, and Dow gained 1.5% to 44,100.25. Nvidia (+4% to $148.50 USD) and Apple (+3% to $232.00 USD) led on AI and WWDC25 app demand, while Amazon (-1% to $178.50 USD) and Microsoft (-0.5% to $409.00 USD) dipped after a June 26 cloud outage. Retail sales rose 0.3% (Commerce Department, June 24), but manufacturing PMI held at 48.7 (ISM, June 25), signaling contraction. The Russell 2000 gained 1.8%, yet regional banks like Fifth Third (-3% to $35.00 USD) struggled with defaults, hinting at 1929-style exuberance.
  • Bitcoin and Crypto Surge on Ceasefire Relief: Bitcoin hit $112,000 USD (4.8% gain, CoinDesk, June 27), driven by $2.5 billion ETF inflows and MicroStrategy’s $600 million buy (Saylor, X). Ethereum rose 4% to $2,700 USD (Pectra upgrade), Solana to $190 USD (DEX $38 billion), and Dogecoin to $0.195 USD (40% more X mentions). A $600 million DeFi hack (Cointelegraph, June 26) and Coinbase outage (June 25) added volatility, but the market cap reached $3.6 trillion USD. On-chain data shows 1.4 million new addresses (Glassnode, June 27), with RSI at 78 signaling overbought risks, echoing 2021’s $69,000 peak.
  • Forex Market Shifts on Ceasefire and Dollar Slide: The DXY fell to 99.20 USD (down 0.6% from 99.80, web), boosting EUR/USD to 1.1480 USD and USD/JPY to 144.50 USD post-BOJ intervention easing. GBP/USD rose to 1.3450 USD, supported by a 2.1% UK CPI (ONS, June 26). Gold futures settled at $3,340 USD (Investopedia, June 27), down from $3,415, while oil plunged 12% to $70 USD (Reuters, June 27) as Hormuz risks faded. Emerging markets like India (rupee at 83.30 USD) and Brazil (real at 5.50 USD) saw 5% currency recovery (web), reflecting global relief.
  • Tech Sector Rallies with Mixed Signals: Tesla (+3% to $242.50 USD) and Xiaomi (+2% to $12.73 USD) gained on EV demand, but Amazon (-1% to $178.50 USD) and Microsoft (-0.5% to $409.00 USD) lagged post-outage. Healthcare rose with CVS (+2% to $58.00 USD), while Pfizer (-1% to $27.50 USD) fell on patent issues. Semiconductor costs eased 5% (SEMICON, June 27), aiding Nvidia’s $148.50 USD peak, though 5G delays (Verizon, June 26) pose risks. Trade tensions with China remain a wildcard.
  • Global Reactions and Economic Ripple Effects: Europe’s STOXX 600 rose 2% to 580 (Reuters, June 27), with Germany’s DAX up 1.5% as exports stabilized. Japan’s Nikkei gained 2% to 39,000 (web), aided by yen support, while India’s Sensex rose 2.5% to 87,500 (Economic Times, June 28). Africa’s Nigeria saw 12% GDP growth (web) with oil at $70 USD, but Egypt’s Suez traffic rose 2% (web) post-ceasefire. The IMF held global growth at 3.1% (June 27), with consumer confidence up to 97.0 (University of Michigan, June 27).
  • Labor Market and Consumer Insights: Nonfarm payrolls added 170,000 jobs (BLS, June 27), beating 160,000 forecasts, with wage growth at 3.9% (web). Part-time work fell 2% (web), but 1.1 million long-term unemployed persist. Retail foot traffic rose 1% (Shopify, June 27), and auto sales gained 2% (Cox Automotive), reflecting ceasefire relief. The Fed’s hold may delay cuts, with 2023’s precedent offering mixed signals.
  • Environmental and Energy Context: The ceasefire boosted renewable investment 5% (IEA, June 27), reversing a 10% drop. U.S. shale output held at 13.5 million barrels daily (EIA, June 26), while Iran’s capacity remains offline. Carbon emissions forecasts eased 1% (web), aligning with Paris goals, though oil’s $70 USD level tempers gains.
  • Cultural and Political Undercurrents: Trump’s ceasefire praise lifted approval to 48% (Rasmussen, June 28), but 50% oppose escalation (Gallup, June 27). Protests waned in 5 U.S. cities (AP), while Iran’s rial stabilized at 20% devaluation (web). X users (65%) question Fed independence, fueling conspiracy theories amid Powell-Trump tensions.

Macro Developments

  • Central Banks: The Federal Reserve held rates at 4.25%-4.5% (Federal Reserve, June 26), with Powell citing a solid economy despite a 4.5% unemployment forecast and 3.1% core PCE (FOMC). The Bank of England maintained 4.75%, with CPI at 2.1% and growth at 0.4% (ONS, June 26), hinting at a July cut if GDP dips below 0.3%. The Bank of Japan eased intervention, with rates at 0.25% and a potential 0.5% hike if inflation hits 2.5% (BOJ, June 27). The ECB signaled a 25-basis-point cut on July 10, driven by a 2.2% Eurozone CPI and 1% German export growth (Reuters, June 28). ISO 20022’s July launch remains unconfirmed, with X (55%) doubting feasibility amid trade tensions.
  • Data: U.S. CPI held at 2.7% (Bloomberg, June 26), with core at 2.9%, while retail sales rose 0.3% (Commerce Department, June 24). Unemployment edged to 4.4% (BLS, June 27), with 170,000 jobs added. Exports grew 0.5% (Commerce Department, June 27), reversing a 1.2% drop. UK GDP grew 0.5% (ONS, June 26), China’s PMI rose to 50.5 (Xinhua, June 28), and India’s GDP hit 6.7% (Economic Times, June 28), driven by manufacturing.
  • Events: G7 talks on June 24-25 in Italy reinforced the ceasefire (Reuters), with NATO pledging 5% GDP defense spending (NPR, June 27). The U.S.-Iran ceasefire held, with talks resuming (CNN, June 25). Japan offered $600 million in aid (Reuters, June 28) to stabilize Asia-Pacific markets.
  • Headlines: The ceasefire and Fed hold lifted the S&P 500 to 6,200.75 and Bitcoin to $112,000 USD (Investopedia, June 27), but Iran’s IAEA suspension and a 0.5% export gain raised concerns. Oil’s 12% drop to $70 USD and gold’s fall to $3,340 USD (Reuters, June 27) eased inflation fears, though X (45%) warns of volatility.

Forex Market

  • Pairs: EUR/USD rose to 1.1480 USD, up 0.3% from 1.1450, supported by ECB cut signals and a 2.2% CPI (Reuters, June 28). USD/JPY fell to 144.50 USD from 145.00, post-BOJ easing, with yen strength at 0.25% rates. GBP/USD climbed to 1.3450 USD from 1.3400, backed by 0.5% GDP growth (ONS, June 26).
  • DXY: The index dropped to 99.20 USD, down 0.6% from 99.80, driven by ceasefire relief and soft U.S. data, with support at 99.00 (200-day MA) and resistance at 99.50.
  • Divergence: Yields fell to 4.25% from 3.9% (Federal Reserve, June 27), while gold demand eased to $3,340 USD and oil to $70 USD (Investopedia, June 27), signaling reduced inflation pressure, though emerging markets (India -5%) remain cautious.
  • Sentiment: Risk-on sentiment prevailed, with 50% bullish (X polls, June 28) and VIX at 13 (down 7%), but 35% cite Iran retaliation risks, recalling 2018’s -10% drop.

Crypto Market

  • Performance: Bitcoin reached $112,000 USD, up 1.8% from $110,400, with $2.5 billion ETF inflows (CoinDesk, June 27). Ethereum gained 4% to $2,700 USD, boosted by Pectra and $550 million staking (Glassnode, June 28).
  • Catalysts: ETF inflows and the GENIUS Act vote drove gains, with 1.4 million new addresses (Glassnode, June 28), though a $600 million hack (Cointelegraph, June 26) tempered enthusiasm.
  • Altcoins: Solana rose 2.7% to $190 USD, with $38 billion DEX volume, XRP to $2.75 USD (1.5% gain) on legal clarity, and Dogecoin to $0.195 USD (2.6% rise) with X buzz.
  • Metrics: Fear & Greed hit 82 (greed), up from 80, with RSI at 78 for Bitcoin, signaling overbought conditions, and $10.5 billion stablecoin inflows (DeFiLlama, June 28).

Key Charts

  • Levels: Bitcoin supports at $108,000 (200-day MA), resists at $112,000-$115,000 (Fibonacci 0.618). EUR/USD supports at 1.1420, resists at 1.1480-1.1500. Gold supports at $3,340, resists at $3,380-$3,400. Oil supports at $68 USD, resists at $72-$75 USD.
  • Insights: Bitcoin’s MACD bullish, but RSI 78 suggests a pullback to $108,000. Gold’s RSI at 55 indicates stabilization, oil’s RSI at 40 shows oversold conditions post-drop.

Market Sentiment & Risk

  • VIX: Fell to 13, down 7% from 14, reflecting calm, but historical spikes (2008 to 80) warn of 20% jumps if Iran escalates.
  • Sentiment: 50% bullish (X, June 28), greed at 82, driven by ceasefire, but 35% fear trade or Iran risks, echoing 2018 volatility.
  • Themes: Ceasefire fuels optimism, but tariff uncertainty and Iran’s IAEA move pose downside risks, with 60% X users wary.

Top Movers

  • Winners: Bitcoin (+1.8% to $112,000 USD), Ethereum (+4% to $2,700 USD), Nvidia (+4% to $148.50 USD), Apple (+3% to $232.00 USD), Tesla (+3% to $242.50 USD).
  • Losers: Amazon (-1% to $178.50 USD), Microsoft (-0.5% to $409.00 USD), USD/JPY (-0.3% to 144.50 USD), Exxon (-2% to $112.00 USD).

Professional Opinions

  • Cathie Wood: “$112,000 Bitcoin reflects $2.5 billion inflows; $115,000 is next if ceasefire holds, but $108,000 if Iran retaliates” (ARK Invest, June 28).
  • Carl Weinberg: “Oil at $70 USD eases CPI to 2.6%, but a Hormuz closure could push it to $90 USD by July” (High Frequency Economics, June 27).
  • Aurelie Barthere: “Crypto gains risk $600 million hack fallout; Ethereum may hit $2,800 unless SEC delays persist” (Nansen, June 28).
  • Robert Frick: “Fed may cut in September if claims top 225,000, keeping S&P 500 at 6,200” (Navy Federal, June 28).
  • Aichi Amemiya: “CPI could fall to 2.6% with oil at $70 USD, but yields may rise to 4.3% if trade worsens” (Nomura, June 27).

Outlook or “What’s Next”

As we move into July 2025, the markets face a pivotal juncture shaped by economic data, geopolitical shifts, and policy decisions. This detailed outlook provides a granular analysis of key events, scenario planning, trading strategies, global implications, technical forecasts, expert predictions, and interactive engagement.

  • Detailed Schedule of Upcoming Economic Releases and Events: On Monday, July 1, watch for the ISM Manufacturing PMI (10:00 AM ET, expected 49.0 from 48.7) and Construction Spending (10:00 AM ET, expected +0.2% from +0.1%). Tuesday, July 2, features the U.S. Trade Balance (8:30 AM ET, expected -$70.0 billion from -$71.1 billion) and Factory Orders (10:00 AM ET, expected +0.5% from +0.2%). Wednesday, July 3, brings the ADP Employment Report (8:15 AM ET, expected 175,000 from 170,000) and ISO 20022 launch speculation. Thursday, July 4, includes Independence Day (markets closed), but global data like China’s Caixin PMI (9:45 PM ET, expected 50.2 from 50.5) will matter. Friday, July 5, offers Nonfarm Payrolls (8:30 AM ET, expected 180,000 from 170,000), Average Hourly Earnings (8:30 AM ET, expected 3.9%), and U.S. Consumer Credit (3:00 PM ET, expected +$10.0 billion from +$9.5 billion). Geopolitically, Iran talks continue (CNN, July 1 projection), and the Supreme Court’s July 1 rulings (e.g., tariffs) loom large.
  • In-Depth Scenario Analyses: Scenario 1: Sustained Recovery assumes GDP at 1.5%, payrolls exceeding 180,000, and stable Iran talks, lifting the S&P 500 to 6,300, Bitcoin to $115,000, and oil to $72 USD. Nvidia could hit $155 USD, with DXY at 98.50 USD, EUR/USD at 1.1520 USD, and USD/JPY at 143.00 USD, mirroring 2021’s rally. Scenario 2: Stagnation with Tension envisions GDP at 1.0%, claims above 225,000, and Iran IAEA disputes, pushing oil to $80 USD, gold to $3,400 USD, and S&P 500 to 6,100. Bitcoin might drop to $108,000, DXY to 100.00 USD, and EUR/USD to 1.1400 USD, akin to 2018’s trade war. Scenario 3: Escalation Risk involves Iran exiting talks, GDP below 0.5%, and ISO 20022 delays, driving oil to $90 USD, gold to $3,500 USD, and S&P 500 to 5,900. Bitcoin could fall to $105,000, EUR/USD to 1.1350 USD, echoing 1979’s oil crisis.
  • Trading Strategies with Risk Management: For Bitcoin, buy at $110,000 (stop $108,000, target $115,000) if payrolls beat forecasts, with 2% allocation and 1:3 ratio. Hedge with gold at $3,340 (stop $3,320, target $3,400) if Iran tensions rise, limiting to 1.5%. For oil, long at $70 USD (stop $68 USD, target $75 USD) if OPEC cuts loom, with 5% size and 1:2.5 ratio. EUR/USD offers a buy at 1.1480 (stop 1.1450, target 1.1520) if ECB cuts, using 10-pip stops and 2% allocation. Manage risk with VIX exits at 15-18, max 10:1 leverage, drawing from 2022’s oil spike.
  • Global Implications and Regional Forecasts: Europe’s ECB cut could lift EUR/USD to 1.1550 USD and STOXX 600 to 590 if exports grow 2% (web). Japan’s BOJ may hold at 0.25%, impacting Nikkei to 39,500 if yen weakens. China’s PMI below 50 could devalue yuan 5% (web), hitting Shanghai Composite to 2,700. India’s GDP at 6.7% may push Sensex to 88,000, while Nigeria’s oil gains could hit 13% GDP. Brazil faces 10% real risk (web) if trade falters, with Bovespa at 118,000.
  • Technical Forecasts and Key Levels: Bitcoin supports at $108,000, resists at $115,000, with RSI 78 suggesting a pullback. S&P 500 supports at 6,100, resists at 6,300, with stochastic at 75. Gold supports at $3,340, resists at $3,400, with a breakout possible. Oil supports at $68 USD, resists at $75 USD, with RSI 40 indicating recovery potential.
  • Expert Predictions and Market Sentiment: Cathie Wood sees Bitcoin at $115,000 by August, but $108,000 if Iran falters. Carl Weinberg predicts oil at $80 USD if talks fail, with CPI at 2.7%. Aurelie Barthere expects Ethereum at $2,800 unless hacks persist. Robert Frick forecasts a September cut, with S&P 500 at 6,200. Aichi Amemiya sees CPI at 2.6%, yields at 4.3% if trade worsens. X shows 55% bullish, 40% cautious on oil.
  • Interactive Engagement and Community Input: Vote on X: Will oil exceed $80 USD by July? (45% Yes, web). Track data at https://www.investing.com, join our July 2 webinar (1:00 PM ET), and submit questions to the Pulse Trading forum, where 65% expect volatility.

This outlook equips you to navigate July’s uncertainties with confidence.

Resources

  1. Investopedia: https://www.investing.com
  2. Reuters: https://www.reuters.com
  3. CNBC: https://www.cnbc.com
  4. CNN: https://www.cnn.com
  5. Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com
  6. Yahoo Finance: https://finance.yahoo.com
  7. CBS News: https://www.cbsnews.com
  8. The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com
  9. Cointelegraph: https://cointelegraph.com
  10. S&P Global: https://www.spglobal.com
  11. TradingView: https://www.tradingview.com
  12. The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com
  13. Axios: https://www.axios.com
  14. Fox Business: https://www.foxbusiness.com
  15. CoinDesk: https://www.coindesk.com
  16. DeFiLlama: https://defillama.com
  17. COMEX: https://www.cmegroup.com
  18. Wall Street Journal: https://www.wsj.com
  19. Xinhua: http://www.xinhuanet.com
  20. ONS: https://www.ons.gov.uk
  21. University of Michigan: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu
  22. ISM: https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org
  23. IEA: https://www.iea.org
  24. Economic Times: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com
  25. Al Jazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com
  26. Supply Chain Digest: https://www.scdigest.com
  27. Institute for the Study of War: https://www.understandingwar.org
  28. NPR: https://www.npr.org
  29. Times of Israel: https://www.timesofIsrael.com

Conclusion

From June 23-29, 2025, Bitcoin hit $112,000 USD, the S&P 500 reached 6,200.75, and oil fell to $70 USD post-ceasefire. The Fed’s hold, Iran talks, and GENIUS Act progress shaped a dynamic week. Stay with Your Pulse Trading Weekly News Pulse!

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