Forex and Crypto Market Surge: Week in Review

Bidja Atkinson

Bidja Atkinson

— 7 min read
Forex and Crypto Market Surge: Week in Review
Unpacking the Forex Volatility and Crypto Rally—July 7-13, 2025

Overview

As of 10:24 AM AEST on July 13, 2025, the week of July 7-13 has been a rollercoaster for forex and crypto markets. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to 99.50 USD, up 0.3%, amid Trump’s tariff threats (The Hindu). EUR/USD stabilized at 1.1450 USD, while USD/JPY hit 144.80 USD (web). In crypto, Bitcoin surged to $112,000 USD with $2.2 billion in ETF inflows (Glassnode), Ethereum reached $2,700 USD (Pectra upgrade), and Solana climbed to $192 USD (web). The Federal Reserve held rates at 4.25%-4.5% (FOMC), with CPI at 2.7% and unemployment at 4.5%, yet market sentiment questions the “soft landing” narrative. Your Pulse Trading Weekly News Pulse delivers an in-depth, skeptical look at these dynamic markets!

What Happened This Week: Forex and Crypto Focus

  • Forex Market: Tariff-Driven Turbulence: The forex market reeled from Trump’s July 7 tariffs (25% on Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Laos, Myanmar, effective August 1), with Canada facing 35% (NBC News). The DXY rose to 99.50 USD (up 0.3%), reflecting dollar strength, while EUR/USD held at 1.1450 USD and USD/JPY spiked to 144.80 USD (web). U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 160,000 jobs (BLS), below 180,000 forecasts, with unemployment at 4.5%, yet the dollar rebounded on tariff fears. EUR/USD tested resistance at 1.1480, with a potential pullback to 1.1420 (Daily Price Action), while USD/JPY’s climb recalls 1995’s yen crisis (80 USD/JPY). Posts found on X (45% bearish) question if this is a dollar rally or a mirage, as emerging markets like India’s rupee (83.40 USD) and Brazil’s real (5.55 USD) fell 3%, hinting at 1997-style contagion.
  • Crypto Market: Resilience and Risks: Bitcoin stabilized at $112,000 USD with $2.2 billion in ETF inflows (Glassnode), outpacing the S&P 500’s 7% yearly gain (Investopedia). Ethereum hit $2,700 USD with the Pectra upgrade, Solana rose to $192 USD, XRP reached $2.76 USD, and Dogecoin dipped to $0.196 USD (web). A $700 million DeFi hack on July 12 (Cointelegraph) shook confidence, yet the market cap hit $3.7 trillion, with 1.4 million new addresses (Glassnode). RSI at 76 mirrors 2017’s $20,000 peak, suggesting a $100,000 drop if tariffs bite. Posts found on X (40%) debate ETF-driven bubbles versus institutional strength, while Trump’s bitcoin reserve plan (Investopedia) fuels optimism, though critics question its feasibility amid $3 trillion deficits.
  • Key Catalysts: Trump’s tariffs drove forex volatility, with Japan’s Nikkei dropping 1.5% to 38,400 and India’s Sensex falling 1% to 86,500 (Economic Times). Crypto rebounded 30% in July, led by Bitcoin and Ethereum (AInvest), with $14.4 billion in ETF inflows year-to-date (Investopedia). The Fed’s rate hold and Iran ceasefire eased oil to $68 USD (Reuters), impacting forex pairs, while the $700 million hack tested crypto resilience.
  • Market Sentiment: Forex traders (45% bearish on X) brace for trade war fallout, while crypto sentiment leans cautiously bullish (Fear & Greed 78), though volatility looms. The establishment’s “stable market” narrative is questioned as hidden risks—like emerging market debt and DeFi vulnerabilities—surface.

Forex Market Developments

  • DXY and Major Pairs: The DXY hit 99.50 USD, with support at 99.00 and resistance at 100.00 (web). EUR/USD traded at 1.1450 USD, testing 1.1480 resistance after U.S. jobs data (Daily Price Action), with a potential drop to 1.1420. USD/JPY surged to 144.80 USD, up from 144.00, driven by yen weakness amid tariff fears (Babypips). GBP/USD fell to 1.3420 USD, pressured by UK budget concerns (web), while AUD/USD gained to 0.6850 USD after the RBA’s surprise rate hold (Babypips).
  • Emerging Markets: India’s rupee (83.40 USD) and Brazil’s real (5.55 USD) dropped 3%, recalling 1997’s Asian crisis (-50% Thai baht). South Africa’s rand weakened 2% to 18.50 USD as gold fell to $3,320 USD (web).
  • Technical Insights: EUR/USD’s ascending channel suggests a pullback if 1.1480 holds (ForexGDP), while USD/JPY’s breakout above 144.00 signals bullish momentum, though 145.00 resistance looms (TIO Markets). Gold consolidated at $3,320 USD, gaining 2% weekly (TIO Markets), with silver up 2.7% to $38 USD.
  • Historical Context: The DXY’s rise echoes 1985’s Plaza Accord (-50% dollar), while USD/JPY’s climb mirrors 1995’s yen carry trade collapse. Emerging market woes hint at 1997’s contagion risks.
  • Critical View: The establishment’s “dollar strength” narrative ignores trade war supply shocks, with 10% auto parts import drops from Japan (web) and 15% revenue losses for small businesses (NFIB).
  • Expanded Analysis: Forex volatility spiked 20% (web), with Canada’s loonie (USD/CAD 1.3650) hit by 35% tariffs (Babypips). The RBA’s hold at 4.35% (expected cut to 4.10%) boosted AUD/USD 1.5%, but 0.6900 resistance tests its rally (Babypips). Germany’s industrial production rose 1.2% (web), yet EUR/USD struggles, suggesting Eurozone weakness. Posts found on X (50%) debate if tariff-driven gains are sustainable amid $3 trillion U.S. deficits.

Crypto Market Performance

  • Bitcoin and Ethereum: Bitcoin hit $112,000 USD, up 15% year-to-date (Investopedia), with $2.2 billion ETF inflows (Glassnode) and $14.4 billion year-to-date (Investopedia). Ethereum reached $2,700 USD, boosted by the Pectra upgrade’s 20% staking increase (AInvest), though it lagged Bitcoin’s 3.9% June gain (Cryptonomist). RSI at 76 signals overbought risks (Changelly).
  • Altcoins and DeFi: Solana rose to $192 USD (3.37% weekly, web), XRP hit $2.76 USD on SEC clarity, and Dogecoin fell 12.7% to $0.196 USD (Cryptonomist). DeFi’s Total Value Locked (TVL) dropped 2.19% to $253.7 billion (Cryptonomist), with PancakeSwap’s 42% DEX share post-Infinity upgrade. Stablecoins grew 2.57% to $228 billion (YouHodler).
  • Market Metrics: Market cap hit $3.7 trillion (Glassnode), with 21.5 trillion on-chain transactions year-to-date (Cryptonomist). Fear & Greed Index at 78 (extreme greed) and 1.4 million new addresses suggest a bubble risk (Investopedia).
  • Institutional Impact: Metaplanet bought 2,204 Bitcoin for $237 million, holding 15,555 BTC (AltSignals), while BlackRock led $4 billion ETF inflows (Galaxy). Treasury companies doubled to 53, diversifying into SOL, BNB, and TRX (Galaxy).
  • Historical Context: Bitcoin’s $112,000 mirrors 2017’s $20,000 peak (-80% drop), while Ethereum’s lag recalls 2018’s bear market. The $700 million hack echoes 2018’s $1 billion PlusToken scam (Cointelegraph).
  • Critical View: The establishment’s “institutional adoption” narrative overlooks DeFi hacks and altcoin weakness. Posts found on X (40%) question if ETF inflows mask a $100,000 correction if tariffs escalate.
  • Expanded Analysis: Bitcoin’s dominance hit 65% (Binance), outpacing altcoins’ -2.2% to -16.5% drops (Cryptonomist). Solana’s 185-230 target (Riotimes) hinges on tariff relief, while Dogecoin’s $0.22-0.45 range (CoinDCX) relies on social hype. Stablecoin growth (USDT $80.7 billion on TRON, YouHodler) supports trading, but 1997-style contagion risks loom for emerging market-linked coins. The Pectra upgrade’s 7% staking ETF (AInvest) boosts Ethereum, yet network congestion caps SOL (-2.2%, Cryptonomist).

Key Charts

  • Forex: DXY (99.00 support, 100.00 resistance), EUR/USD (1.1420-1.1480), USD/JPY (144.00-145.00), Gold ($3,300-$3,350).
  • Crypto: Bitcoin ($110,000-$115,000), Ethereum ($2,650-$2,900), Solana ($185-$230).
  • Insights: DXY RSI 60, Bitcoin RSI 76, Ethereum RSI 58, Gold RSI 52.
  • Expanded Charts: EUR/USD’s 1.1480 resistance tests May’s channel (Daily Price Action), while USD/JPY’s 145.00 recalls 1998’s 147.64 peak. Bitcoin’s $115,000 target aligns with 2017’s pattern (InvestingHaven), but $100,000 support nears 2022’s low. Ethereum’s $2,900 hinges on Pectra (CoinDCX), while Solana’s $230 needs volume (Riotimes).

Market Sentiment & Risk

  • Forex: VIX rose to 16 (up 23%), with 45% bearish sentiment (X). Tariffs and floods fuel risk-off moves.
  • Crypto: Fear & Greed 78, with 40% caution (X). The $700 million hack and RSI 76 signal correction risks.
  • Themes: Trade wars and institutional flows drive volatility.
  • Expanded Risk: Forex’s 16 VIX recalls 2008’s 80, with 23% rise hinting at complacency. Crypto’s greed (78) mirrors 1929’s exuberance, with DeFI TVL drops and hack fallout raising red flags. Posts found on X debate tariff impacts on both markets.

Top Movers

  • Forex: USD (DXY 99.50), JPY (144.80), AUD (0.6850).
  • Crypto: Bitcoin ($112,000), Ethereum ($2,700), Solana ($192).
  • Expanded Movers: USD/JPY’s yen weakness ties to tariff fears, AUD/USD’s rally reflects RBA strength, and Bitcoin’s ETF inflows outpace Ethereum’s lag. Solana’s rise beats Dogecoin’s dip.

Professional Opinions

  • Forex: Aichi Amemiya (Nomura): “CPI 2.7%, yields to 4.3% with tariffs” (web).
  • Crypto: Cathie Wood (ARK): “Bitcoin $115K if inflows persist, $108K if tariffs bite” (Investopedia). Aurelie Barthere (Nansen): “Crypto risks $700M hack fallout” (web).
  • Expanded Views: Amemiya’s yields align with 1990s tightening, risking 1994’s bond crash. Wood’s optimism ignores 2018’s -80% drop, while Barthere’s hack warning echoes 2018’s PlusToken.

Outlook or “What’s Next”

  • Releases: CPI (July 15), payrolls (July 18), ISO 20022 (July 15 projection).
  • Scenarios: Forex (DXY 100, EUR/USD 1.1400), Crypto (Bitcoin $115K, Ethereum $2,900).
  • Strategies: Buy Bitcoin at $110K (stop $108K, target $115K), hedge with EUR/USD at 1.1420.
  • Impacts: Europe 1.5%, Japan 0.5%.
  • Levels: Bitcoin ($110K-$115K), DXY (99.00-100.00).
  • Views: Wood $115K, Amemiya 4.3% yields.
  • Engagement: Vote on X: Tariffs to $100B loss? Join July 15 webinar.
  • Expanded Outlook: DXY’s 100.00 tests 1985’s peak, EUR/USD’s 1.1400 hinges on Eurozone data, and Bitcoin’s $115K relies on ETF flows (Investopedia). Solana’s $230 and Ethereum’s $2,900 need tariff relief (AInvest). Posts found on X (60%) expect 20% forex/crypto drops if trade wars escalate.

Economic Calendar: July 14-20, 2025

  • Monday, July 14: No major forex or crypto-specific releases, but markets may react to weekend tariff negotiations and Iran ceasefire updates (Reuters, NPR). Watch for posts found on X indicating trader sentiment shifts.
  • Tuesday, July 15: U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data (expected 2.7%-2.8% YoY) will influence Fed rate cut odds (FOMC, posts found on X). ISO 20022 implementation may impact crypto infrastructure (web speculation).
  • Wednesday, July 16: UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) expected at 2.1%-2.2% (Bank of England), affecting GBP/USD (web). Crypto markets may see ETF flow reactions (Glassnode).
  • Thursday, July 17: UK ILO Unemployment Rate (May, expected 4.3%) and U.S. Retail Sales (June, expected -0.1%) will drive forex volatility (BLS, posts found on X). Bitcoin RSI trends may signal corrections (Changelly).
  • Friday, July 18: U.S. Michigan University Consumer Confidence Index (July, expected 68-70) could sway dollar strength (University of Michigan), with crypto reacting to institutional moves (Investopedia).
  • Critical View: Official forecasts may downplay tariff impacts on inflation and crypto volatility. Posts found on X suggest heightened uncertainty, especially around U.S. data releases.

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